Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 15.935029 18.182017 20.611908 23.432273 26.613208 30.087135 34.165947
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 12.171372 15.094003 18.503862 22.766050 27.940735 34.008992 41.653855
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 10.492229 13.721242 17.674511 22.852130 29.434663 37.502541 48.117780
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 9.317916 12.770401 17.180298 23.196941 31.159248 41.298797 55.148781
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 8.358419 11.933135 16.670468 23.366491 32.539252 44.609492 61.632061
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 7.448967 11.043356 15.970977 23.165423 33.336573 47.125370 67.142751
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 6.823335 10.469771 15.625288 23.376931 34.652235 50.353201 73.745993
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 6.444028 10.204774 15.674133 24.121139 36.730047 54.719821 82.158928
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 5.851424 9.557358 15.097817 23.881217 37.326099 56.965225 87.606540
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.091395 8.576975 13.933377 22.648487 36.325349 56.773000 89.396014
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 4.840598 8.379048 13.949543 23.221324 38.091358 60.776661 97.677485
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.618337 8.204888 13.982785 23.810259 39.900205 64.921100 106.373250
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.236621 7.738205 13.519245 23.580515 40.416881 67.132843 112.254837
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.849358 7.227602 12.942599 23.117980 40.516791 68.680638 117.158785
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.588083 6.913503 12.668796 23.135844 41.396297 71.506179 124.252071
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.409080 6.731465 12.606717 23.508080 42.888785 75.404887 133.310480
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.213288 6.500091 12.437074 23.671937 44.018781 78.739820 141.572855
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.981960 6.180304 12.081647 23.470977 44.481941 80.946577 147.995709
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.827785 5.996118 11.960003 23.684245 45.689657 84.486289 156.890741
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.754645 5.966113 12.124062 24.437950 47.921064 89.927516 169.399769
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.564130 5.681359 11.778390 24.194963 48.280061 92.034224 176.024226
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.275029 5.166676 10.945155 22.946995 46.657793 90.452963 175.841566
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.209100 5.119108 11.036971 23.526923 48.571784 95.457799 188.032662